College Football Watching Guide (Week 10)
Super size me!
Apparently, back before I could reliably purchase McDonald’s, they had something called a “super-size.”
You could ask for it with any meal and get an absolutely insane amount of chow for very little money. Eventually, Mickey D’s stopped the deal and changed their menu, because folks realized so much artery-clogging fast food was probably a bad thing. And good for them.
But you know what doesn’t shorten your lifespan? College football. It’s endless, stupendous fun that’s only around for a short time every year.
This week, we have a brilliant batch of games running from midday past midnight, longer than usual. Super-sized, if you will. And to celebrate that, I’ve super-sized this newsletter!
In addition to your usual schedule breakdown letting you know what games to watch and when, I’ve included two new features that are here until season’s end.
First up is the Playoff Eliminator, a nifty way for you to figure out who’s still in the hunt for college football’s top prize.
And below that you’ll find your Free Slate, the return of a much-requested feature from my time writing at The Solid Verbal, where I pick out the time where you can take a break, take a breath, and enjoy all the other joyful diversions you can come up with on a Saturday without missing too much college football action.
Check it out below!
PLAYOFF ELIMINATOR
Every year, the pundits in the vast college football media landscape start speculating endlessly regarding who will make the College Football Playoff. But back in its first year, I noticed the Committee was selecting teams based on some semi-straightforward rules. So if you want to skip all the noise, check out my not-quite-patented Playoff Eliminator below!
The Playoff Eliminator is a data-driven method of predicting the Playoff that has correctly determined the field every single year since its inception.
Here’s its methodology. The four Playoff seeds will consist of, in order:
Undefeated Power 5 conference champions + Notre Dame
Power 5 conference champions with one loss
Power 5 teams + Notre Dame with one loss
Undefeated Group of 5 + Independent teams
Given past years, two losses automatically eliminates any Power 5 team or Notre Dame from Playoff contention, and one loss does the same for any other team.
The following teams, in order, remain in contention for the Playoff:
SAFE (Undefeated P5 + ND)
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Florida State
Washington
BUBBLE (One-loss P5 + ND AND Undefeated G5 + Ind)
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Penn State
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Missouri
Louisville
Air Force
James Madison
Liberty
FREE SLATE
Early
This one was really hard. Eventually, I settled on this Slate because it looks like these games could all go sideways early so you might not need to watch them. Keep an eye on them, and if that’s not accurate, get back in front of your screens by the fourth quarter. Otherwise, take this time to bask in those last few days of fall with your friends, your family, or your significant other (e.g., my lovely wife) before things get truly chilly. Go for a walk in the crisp autumn air, enjoy the falling leaves, and smile. Life’s good.
EARLY SLATE
Big Screen
Kansas State at Texas
12:00pm/11:00am (FOX)
The Wildcats are ranked and solidly competitive. They score points in buckets and rack up yards, mostly due to a lethal running game. A two-headed running combo of Treshaun Ward and DJ Giddens keeps opposing defenses on their toes, while Will Howard maintains a respectable grasp on the pass game. The Wildcat defense stuffs the run and defends well in the red zone, but has trouble keeping big pass plays in front of them.
The Longhorns need to win on Saturday. Quinn Ewers leads a balanced offense that does a great job at exploiting defensive weaknesses, but doesn’t hold the ball as long as their defense would likely like. The Texas secondary needs help, but the line stuffs running attacks like no one’s business. That could be important this week.
Small Screen
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
12:00pm/11:00am (ESPN)
Things haven’t gone exactly as the Aggies wanted this year. The offense is a cipher. Max Johnson looked alright against the Gamecocks last week and looks to keep up his leadership. But what keeps the Ags in games is their defense: nigh unbeatable, hard to dissect, and a practical rock wall.
The Rebels are still in Playoff contention and facing a hard test here. Jaxson Dart drives the bus and scores points in droves, FAST. When he can’t pass, Quinshon Judkins runs over opposing defensive fronts. Which is good, because the Ole Miss defense isn’t spectacular. It does a middling job at everything.
Watch The Score
Notre Dame at Clemson (12pm/11am, ABC)
MIDDLE SLATE
Big Screen
Missouri at Georgia
3:30pm/2:30pm (CBS)
Mizzou’s benefited from a weak schedule thus far, and has a murderer’s row to end the year. This is where it starts. What do they bring to the table? Brady Cook’s passing is the key on offense, with Luther Burden III out wide absorbing most of the big receptions. Cody Schrader handles things well out of the backfield. The defense does well up front but leaks in the secondary. Overall, Eli Drinkwitz’s boys are in for a rough ride.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, need to take this opponent seriously. They can’t afford to trip up on their way to winning the SEC. Carson Beck’s stepped up at quarterback, distributing the ball now primarily to Ladd McConkey to fuel a potent point-scoring attack. The defense has no discernable weaknesses and blocks up anyone Georgia faces.
Small Screen
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
3:30pm/2:30pm (ABC)
BEDLAM!!!!! Chaos ensues every time these two teams face each other. This year, the Sooners have an undeniable edge on offense, and they want to move past last week’s tough loss to a game Kansas squad. Dillon Gabriel distributes the ball exceptionally well, and Drake Stoops is the foremost target. The Sooner defense is surprisingly lackluster for a team coached by Brent Venables, but it does fine up front.
The Cowboys find themselves in the position of spoilsport. Riding a hot four-game win streak, they’ll rely on veteran arm Alan Bowman to keep things sorted on offense. Ollie Gordon II looks great out of the backfield too, gashing opposing fronts and scoring repeatedly. Good thing too. The defense is bad. Real bad. Expect a ton of points to be scored here.
Watch The Score
Cal at Oregon (5:30pm/4:30pm, PAC-12 Network)
James Madison at Georgia State (3:30pm/2:30pm, ESPN2)
NIGHT SLATE
Big Screen
Washington at USC
7:30pm/6:30pm (ABC)
The Huskies are undefeated, the only team to knock off mighty Oregon. Michael Penix Jr. still helms the best passing attack out there, and they don’t need to run much to score, completing drives in blistering time. The defense? Well . . . they don’t allow points, and they’re alright up front, but any opposing QB can pass on them at will.
The Playoff was the Trojans’ aspiration, but that’s out of reach now. They struggle thanks to an absolutely terrible defensive showing, week after week. This team rises and falls as Caleb Williams, noted former Heisman winner, wills. If they can outscore opponents they win, and if they don’t, well, they don’t. It’s been a touch disappointing thus far for USC, but spoiling Washington’s good time would be a great feather in their cap.
Small Screen
LSU at Alabama
7:45pm/6:45pm (CBS)
The Bayou Bengals got an extra week of rest rounding into this tough matchup, and bring in the best overall offense in the nation by total yards. Jayden Daniels is a mobile threat that makes opposing secondaries shudder, but the Tigahs have Trey Holly in the backfield too, keeping defensive fronts honest. Their weakness is defense. Across the board, they just fold in front of offenses.
The Tide need a win to stay in the Playoff conversation, and Jalen Milroe’s looking better leading the offense. Like LSU, Alabama’s had a week off to prepare for this game, so we can only hope Nick Saban’s drilled his teams a ton to eliminate the lackluster play that’s plagued them all year long. The defense is not a point of concern though, and it will be interesting to see how it handles a full-bore challenge.
Watch The Score
Miami at NC State (8pm/7pm, ACC Network)
LATE SLATE
Big Screen
UCLA at Arizona
10:30pm/9:30pm (FS1)
Last week the Bruins handled Coach Prime in the Rose Bowl. Ethan Garbers looked accurate and in command. He needs to replicate that performance here to supplement UCLA’s destructive rushing. The Bruins tend to rack up over 200 yards a game out of the backfield, which certainly helps things. On the other side of the ball, they don’t let anything happen up front, with the second-best rushing defense in the league. Where they need help is their secondary play.
Arizona might be poised to take advantage. Coming off an emotional, close win over Oregon State, it remains to be seen if there’s some hangover. Noah Fifita manages a very competent offense that will gash you with the pass, and the Wildcats boast a rock-solid front seven on defense that gives opposing run games and quarterbacks alike trouble. I know I called ‘Zona lackluster a few weeks back, but I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong.
Small Screen
Oregon State at Colorado
10:00pm/9:00pm (ESPN)
The Beavs are thinking “bounce back” with all their might this week. Over the season, the passing game’s rounded into form as opposing defenses have keyed on stopping the run, leading to a balanced offensive showing from Oregon State that does well at sustaining drives. The Beaver defense is better than average but not standout-level fantastic at anything, though that’s still enough to be dangerous in this year’s PAC-12.
Meanwhile, how the mighty have fallen. Coach Deion Sanders and the Buffs are on a skid, losing four of their last five (the one win was over lowly Arizona State). The offense is the definition of one-dimensional. Shedeur Sanders is still brilliant and the passing attack he leads is still overwhelming, but I don’t think Colorado knows what the phrase “run blocking” means. And don’t get me started on the abject disaster that is the defense, up and down the board. The Buffaloes’ strategy for the rest of the year? Outscore everyone.
Wow! First week reading your selections for viewing. (Read after the games). You were spot o