College Football Watching Guide: Playoff Semifinal and Championship Preview 2025
All good things must end.
We’ve come to the payoff. Our semifinal field is set, after the second round of the College Football Playoff gave us four losses from the supposed top four teams. Thing is, though, most of those games were competitive. One was an outright overtime thriller.
More fuel for my argument that twelve teams is actually too many and eight teams is perfect.
Time to take a look at all four remaining teams, detailing their respective strengths and weaknesses, before this newsletter takes an early-offseason hiatus. And you know what? I’ll do something special and give you my prediction for the winner of each matchup, just for fun!
Notre Dame at Penn State (Orange Bowl)
Thu Jan 9 7:30pm/6:30pm (ESPN)
The Irish proved they belong here by knocking off a game Georgia squad, leaving no doubt as to their prowess. Surprisingly, their run defense showed up strong, rather than their secondary. Throughout the season it’s typically been the reverse, and I’d keep in mind that Notre Dame’s big strength is their defense, which is excellent. On offense, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price head up a brutalizing rushing attack that forms the backbone of their strategy. Riley Leonard gets all the kudos for some reason, but he’s less a flashy gunslinger and more a short-yardage ball-distributor. If you’re gonna beat the Irish, make them pass.
Penn State’s built to do just that. Their rushing defense typically allows no more than 100 yards total per game. In that vein, they hobbled Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty last round, holding him to 104. Like Leonard, Drew Allar doesn’t unleash the deep ball often, relying on close-quarters passing and Kaytron Allen’s rushing talents to score. But he does have more potential to explode for yards than Notre Dame’s backfield commander, and if you’re looking for indicators, that could be the difference-maker.
Still, to me, this feels like a low-scoring defensive struggle waiting to happen. Both teams were tested by opponents with formidable weapons, but if I’m being honest, the skill level of Georgia’s offense eclipses Boise State’s overall. The Irish have played tough fronts, managed to run on them, and racked up points. To me, that’s the determining factor.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame 20, Penn State 13
Ohio State at Texas (Cotton Bowl)
Fri Jan 10 7:30pm/6:30pm (ESPN)
The Buckeyes soundly avenged their loss to Oregon with a blistering first half performance headed by receiving wunderkind Jeremiah Smith. Will Howard could do no wrong, the offensive line looked great, and the defense turned the Ducks one-dimensional and kept them out of the endzone. Hear me now and believe me later: it’s about to happen all over again. Ohio State rides a solid if unflashy offensive attack to enough scoring, helped by the best defense in the sport. It ranks at the top in points allowed, yards allowed, and pass defense. Don’t let me undersell their front either. It holds tailbacks to 92 yards on average.
Texas hopes to shatter that mystique. All year they’ve garnered the reputation of offensive juggernaut, and make no mistake, Quinn Ewers is spectacular at finding the open man. But as their gutsy win over the Sun Devils proved, the Longhorns have backfield talent too, with Quintrevion Wisner and phenom Jaydon Blue handling matters. Their defense is no joke either, facing the SEC’s best and coming out with top-20 ranks in every major category.
Placing these teams up against each other, I have a clear favorite. The Buckeyes are peaking at the right time, while the Longhorns showed clear vulnerabilities that nearly cost them their title chances last round. This time, thanks to Ohio State’s dream-crushing machine, it will.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 37, Texas 17
CFB National Championship
Mon Jan 20 7:30pm/6:30pm (ESPN)
This is it. Held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the first title match of this sport’s new era should be exciting, no matter who’s there.
But if it’s the two teams I’ve picked, who wins, in my humble opinion?
Well, while Notre Dame’s played tough defensive units, Ohio State’s is generationally difficult to crack. They’re on another level. But the Irish secondary is likewise stingy, which could hamper the Buckeyes’ offense. Bottom line: winning football championships comes down to scoring more points than the other team. You do that either by doing more on offense or defense, and Ohio State’s shown more aptitude with both of those units against some of the sport’s toughest competition than Notre Dame, so they get the edge.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 13