College Football Watching Guide: Bowl Season Week 3 2024
New year, new bowls.
We’re rounding the bend now, folks. Just a few more bowls to go, carrying us into the new year.
The first round of the new Playoff is done and dusted, and everyone’s got their hot takes. To me, the fact that the First Round games were kind of underwhelming means that you probably shouldn’t expand it any further. I’ve said for years that eight teams is the perfect number if we’re maximizing entertainment value, but I guess some folks think rewarding conference champs with byes is more important.
Where was I? Oh yes, bowl games. Here’s five more excellent matchups to finish things up, plus a preview of the Playoff quarterfinal games! I’ll be back next Saturday with a combined semifinal/championship preview, so look forward to that.
(If you’re looking for this Saturday’s games, here they are.)
Iowa at Missouri (Music City Bowl)
Mon Dec 30 2:30pm/1:30pm (ESPN)
This year, the Hawkeyes actually scored points! Good for them! They mostly did that by absolutely pounding the rock, but their time of possession was kind of low, so not only did they run the ball lots, they got to the endzone fast. Their 8-4 record wouldn’t have been possible without the usual Iowa trademark of world-class defense, though.
Mizzou, on the other hand? Lost to every truly top-tier team on their schedule, won some squeakers against good ones, and ended up here. The offense is the most mid thing you can possibly imagine. The best thing you can say about the Tigers on offense is that they hold the ball for a long time. Still, the defense was consistently scary. I don’t ever recommend you bet on sports, but if you must, the under seems like a safe move here.
Alabama at Michigan (ReliaQuest Bowl)
Tue Dec 31 12:00pm/11:00am (ESPN)
Fancy meeting you here, Crimson Tide! Bama probably needed a year in the wilderness after a dominant reign over this sport under Nick Saban. They’ll be fine. According to Kalen DeBoer, no one’s opting out, and they’re not losing much to the portal aside from starting CB DeVonta Smith—which, yeah, gut punch. Hopefully the defensive front seven have found themselves and Jalen Milroe’s got his accuracy back under center.
The Wolverines feel like they shouldn’t be anywhere near a bowl game. They cannot pass the football. They can barely defend the pass or run the ball. They thrive, instead, on pressuring opposing QBs and stifling tailbacks, making the offenses they face one-dimensional. Not sure how well that will work against an extremely angry Tide squad, but best of luck to them.
Louisville at Washington (Sun Bowl)
Tue Dec 31 2:00pm/1:00pm (CBS)
The Cardinals were secretly good this year. They whooped Clemson, lost to Miami by a TD, and lost to two Playoff teams by that same margin. Problem is, they did that mostly on the strength of Tyler Shough’s arm, and he's opting out. So are some serious skill players on their offense. As constituted, the defense is fine, and has a knack for stopping the run.
The Huskies, meanwhile, lost two of their starting offensive linemen to the portal, benched their starting QB in the final game of the regular season, and are banged up on defense. Their saving grace is the nation’s 5th-best pass defense. If the secondary holds together and gives Louisville’s backup fits, they could eke one out.
South Carolina at Illinois (Citrus Bowl)
Tue Dec 31 3:00pm/2:00pm (ABC)
Now here’s a brilliant matchup hiding in plain sight. Nothing too major to report for opt-outs or transfers, just two excellent squads duking it out on a Tuesday afternoon. Everybody yelled about how the Gamecocks should have made the Playoff, but if you look at the stats, what they are is a decidedly mid offensive team coupled with a really good defensive front that doesn't like to let running backs get loose. That fueled them to startling levels of success in a difficult SEC.
Illinois is an enigma at first glance. The Illini are not standout levels of good at anything. They stopped teams from scoring, and they’re efficient on third down, but that's kind of it. Then you look at their schedule, and suddenly their 9-3 record makes a ton of sense. Bret Bielema’s boys beat up on the weakest Big Ten teams they could find all year. They will find South Carolina more challenging.
Baylor at LSU (Texas Bowl)
Tue Dec 31 3:30pm/2:30pm (ESPN)
This is one of the best games this bowl season, on paper. The Bears started the season with a run of bad losses to tough teams, but after their midseason bye they found their groove and rode dominant offensive performances to six straight wins. The speedy “Bear Raid” runs well because Bryson Washington does, attracting defenses’ attention and allowing Sawyer Robertson to toss it over their heads. Speaking of defense, Baylor’s is…well, don’t look at it too hard. It just lost a bunch of talent to the portal too.
The Bayou Bengals would love to take advantage of those departures with their 8th-ranked passing offense. They certainly wanted to do better this year, but Garrett Nussmeier racked up stats that are nothing to shake a stick at. But LSU did just lose both of their starting offensive tackles and their starting tight end to the menace of draft-based opt outs. Their defense is also just OK, but it’s certainly better than Baylor's. If you haven't gotten the gist by now, there should be a lot of points scored in this one.
Penn State at Boise State (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal)
Tue Dec 31 7:30pm/6:30pm (ESPN)
The Nittany Lions relied on their defense last week, capitalizing on SMU’s mistakes to reach the next stage of the Playoff. In the process, Drew Allar and the offense looked blah. They might be able to get away with that one last time against a Bronco defense that cannot defend the pass. But the real question in this matchup is whether Penn State’s seventh-ranked rush defense can contain Ashton Jeanty. Bleeding clock with long, sustained, run-centered drives is Boise State’s ticket to the next round.
Texas at Arizona State (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal)
Wed Jan 1 1:00pm/12:00pm (ESPN)
I don’t know why Texas is favored so massively here. I mean, I kind of do. They just beat a very game Clemson team, and they pass well and play flawless defense. But the Sun Devils are exactly the sort of team that could throw the Horns for a loop. Their attack centers on artful dodger Cam Skattebo, the best player not invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony this season. His running’s fun to watch, puts up points, and ASU relies on it to hold the ball and give their defense, which is good but not great and struggles in the secondary, time to breathe.
Ohio State at Oregon (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal)
Wed Jan 1 5:00pm/4:00pm (ESPN)
The rematch of maybe the year’s best game. This one should be fun. The Buckeyes probably have the best defense in football, so the key to this one is whether Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks have the same success against that front that they did earlier. The underrated stat for Oregon that jumps off the page is their 49% success rate on 3rd down. That’s really high. When they have the ball, they tend to keep drives going, however they can. And their defense isn’t too shabby. Be there when this one goes down.
Notre Dame at Georgia (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal)
Wed Jan 1 8:45pm/7:45pm (ESPN)
I have absolutely no idea who wins this football game. I could see arguments for both teams. On the one hand, the Irish looked pretty good against Indiana, with their punishing run-first offense giving Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price time to shine. Their defense is built to prevent the big play and make teams win on the ground. Georgia might be in trouble on that front, as their run game’s been blah all year, and starting QB Carson Beck is on the sidelines. Gunner Stockton, noted old-body Ford F-150 driver, will handle passing duties, and much will rely on his ability to decode Irish coverages. He looked fine in the SEC Championship when called on to do just that against Texas, and if he does it again, the Dawgs move on.